Best Picture Predictions

Current Predictions (10-04-11):
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Descendants
The Help
The Artist
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Moneyball

Best Picture Notes (10-04-11): The best picture race still feels very shaky, if only because there is no clear-cut contenders yet. Generally by this time we can lock in at least one or two films that will surely be up for the big award. Nothing seems more than tenuous at this point. It’s going to be a fun year, wherein the eventual winner may actually be something special. In years where the race remains up in the air for a while, pictures like No Country For Old Men and The Departed can sometimes sneak through. In years where a small, compelling picture locks it up early, there is generally an “upset” by a bigger, machine-manufactured film (see: Crash + A King’s Speech, recently).

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REVIEW: Take Shelter

Just because your paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not after you. Take Shelter, Jeff Nichols’ sophomore directorial effort, concerns itself with how crazy a person’s assertions must be before we dismiss them completely. The film warps our sense of storytelling perspective by allowing us to objectively watch a man fall deeper and deeper into psychosis while also abruptly thrusting us into his point of view as though these visions completely make sense. Outside of his perspective, Take Shelter never even considers that its main character isn’t crazy.

Curtis lives with his wife, Samantha, and hearing-impaired daughter, Hannah, in a small ranch house in Ohio. Everything about this family screams contemporary American life. They struggle with topical issues like health insurance, job security, and a desperate need to save up for that annual beach vacation. Things begin to go awry when Curtis starts having such intense nightmares that he awakes in physical pain. The nightmares then turn to actual visions of an oncoming storm. Naturally, nobody else sees the storm.

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REVIEW: 50/50

Sometimes things don’t go as they were planned. Sometimes we have to deal with the last thing we want to worry about. Sometimes when shit hits the fan, the people we least expect come to the rescue and people we trust fall away in selfishness. 50/50 explores what happens when people are forced to deal with an illness of a loved one. How do you put in the right amount of worry without making the ill feel like a tremendous burden?

50/50 tells the story of Adam (Joseph Gordon-Levitt), a 27 year-old diagnosed with rare cancer. As the story unfolds, it’s not only about a guy with cancer or about where to find humor in seriousness but also how Adam deals with his disease while trying even harder to deal with the people around him.

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Arrested Development Coming Back For Another Season

As films become more and more uninspired and insipid, it seems television’s ability to churn out groundbreaking media at an alarming rate is growing exponentially. This is technically film news as it’s essentially a lead-in to the highly anticipated Arrested Development movie. I’m mostly inclined to comment on this because Arrested Development was a pioneer of the television form, whose residual effect has influenced and financially benefited other successful shows like 30 Rock, The Office, and Community. Can’t control my excitement about this one:

Arrested Development creator Mitch Hurwitz announced today that the show will be coming back to television — five years after it was cancelled.

Hurwitz said the show will do a “limited” season which will show us what the characters have been up to since the show last aired … which will then lead right into the planned movie.

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Of Critics and Box Offices Chart

Handy little chart documenting the top critically acclaimed and box office movies of 2011 thus far. I don’t buy into the idea that box office can can propel a film to an Oscar anymore. In the old Hollywood system, motion picture popularity came from original films also quite revered by critics, with some obvious exceptions. In the past decade the disparity between box office success and critical response has mostly to do with studios lessening their output of original material (or total films in general) while focusing on financially safe properties with built-in fan bases.

I’m not sure how much this chart really helps us Oscar-wise but it a nice way to put contemporary money intake vs. critical acclaim into perspective.

See the chart after the jump.

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Best Screenplay Predictions

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Current Predictions (09-30-11):
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids
Sean Durkin, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Diablo Cody, Young Adult

With all the heavy hitters in the Adapted Category, this one has the makings of a very compelling year for smaller films. Often, Original Screenplay has been a landing pad for compelling films that are otherwise ignored by the academy – Pulp Fiction, Magnolia, Lost In Translation come to mind. Lately, films in the Original category have garnered more praise up top and been strong contenders for other major awards. Two years ago, Aviator briefly revived Hollywood’s belief that an original story could bring Box Office returns while the same year The Hurt Locker reconfirmed how an original little film can sweep up the mass of critical acclaim.

The year, The Artist has the benefit of being the only Original Screenplay looking to get serious attention in the Best Picture category and beyond. A silent picture about silent pictures that keeps our attention without diving headlong into pastiche has to be well-written. I see no reason to assume The Artist won’t get a nomination here. I’m equally convinced that Allen will get nominated for Midnight in Paris. Woody has been nominated 14 times for Original Screenplay. Seeing as I don’t think Midnight in Paris will get as much attention as others, it’s a virtual-lock to get something of an honorary nod here. It may even win.

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New Photos of Michelle Williams as Marilyn

New pictures from My Week With Marilyn showing more of Michelle Williams’ exciting transformation into the legend. I understand the reservations, seeing as “doing Marilyn” has it’s inherent pitfalls, but I’m incredibly excited about this film. The story seems interesting enough and Michelle Williams has a habit of picking role after role in compelling pictures (Blue Valentine was my favorite last year and Meek’s Cutoff might just be my favorite so far this year). In fact, I can’t remember a Michelle Williams film that didn’t inspire me. Kenneth Branagh’s inclusion only helps make this one of my most antipated upcoming flicks.

Thanks to Awards Daily for the photos.

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Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Current Predictions (09-29-11):
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Naomi Watts, J. Edgar
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

A weak crop of candidates could keep this race suspenseful or it could allow a clear winner to emerge before nominees are even announced. Octavia Spencer in The Help would be the most viable person to start raking in precursor awards. Similar to Monique in Precious, there has been buzz about her performance from the moment the film was released. The only thing standing in Spencer’s way is the long shadow of Viola Davis’ unparalleled performance. The Help is an actor’s movie and I think it will be recognized as such. With virtually all tech categories out of the question, look for the Academy to reward great performances for the film.

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Von Sydow for Best Supporting?

Apparently we need to add Max Von Sydow to the list of under-appreciated actors vying for Best Supporting Actor nod. According to Kris Tapley at In Contention, reviews out of an early test screening of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are very positive. The new trailer does nothing but confirm the possibility that this film is Oscar bait.

I, personally, would love to see Von Sydow be recognized for a long career filled with many moving performances.

Check out the full story at In Contention.

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Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Trailer

The trailer for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close surfaced yesterday. I’ve been on the fence about this one for a while. I love all of Daldry’s previous movies but this has corny written all over it. Daldry tends to handle potentially contrived material with heart and patience. My fear with Extremely Loud is that it will fall too far intot he realm of sappy. It’s success will probably depend on how well it portrays the substantive insights from Jonathan Safran’s novel. Youngster Thomas Horn will have to do most of the heavy lifting.  Judging by this trailer, Horn might hit it out of the park.

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