Best Picture 09-25-11: The pundit world has almost universally decided that both The Artist and War Horse will be nominated. I having a sneaking suspicion that neither will actually break through and I feel pretty confident that both certainly will not. The Artist looks a little cute for Oscar voters and, ironically, too esoteric as well.  War Horse feels exactly like Nine from years ago, all but handed a nomination until people actually set eyes on it.

I have a gut feeling Moneyball will get nominated (with no chance for the win). Critical acclaim and pretty standard fluff, but not entirely hollow subject matter, makes Moneyball a virtual lock as far as I can tell. The other four are good bets with Ides of March still feeling really shaky. Outside of Moneyball, any one of these could fall away.

Close To Locks:
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Descendants
Ides of March
The Help

Strong Possibilities:
The Artist
War Horse
J. Edgar
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Probably Out:
Midnight in Paris
Drive
Tree of Life
Warrior

Keep An Eye On:
Hugo
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Contagion
Young Adult