Best Picture 09-25-11: The pundit world has almost universally decided that both The Artist and War Horse will be nominated. I having a sneaking suspicion that neither will actually break through and I feel pretty confident that both certainly will not. The Artist looks a little cute for Oscar voters and, ironically, too esoteric as well. War Horse feels exactly like Nine from years ago, all but handed a nomination until people actually set eyes on it.
I have a gut feeling Moneyball will get nominated (with no chance for the win). Critical acclaim and pretty standard fluff, but not entirely hollow subject matter, makes Moneyball a virtual lock as far as I can tell. The other four are good bets with Ides of March still feeling really shaky. Outside of Moneyball, any one of these could fall away.
Close To Locks:
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Ides of March
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Midnight in Paris
Tree of Life
Keep An Eye On:
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo