Current Predictions 09-26-11:
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Director Notes: Nobody stands out as a definite candidate just yet. The majority of exciting movies so far this year were either heavily story-based (Moneyball) or ultra-specific directorial visions (Tree of Life). Both will certainly alienate some. I’m very confident Moneyball will sneak into the Best Picture race but I’m less confident that Bennett Miller has the legs to get into the director race. I feel similarly about The Help, actually.

Earlier this year, Malick and Allen released pictures to huge acclaim, leading some to think one of them might get something of an honorary nod. I feel like of the two, Malick is more likely as Allen. Allen Oscar dominance now stands as roughly a decade ago; seems dead and buried on these younger voters. As it stands, I do think Miller will get in as will Alexander Payne.

I have a feeling that the voters with will take a “Director’s movie” as they often do (Talk to Her and Mulholland Drive to name a few). This is the slot that would go to Allen or Malick, but to for my money I’m guessing it goes to Nicolas Winding Refn. Drive has that semi-mainstream appeal, with an artsy flair that might say auteur without having the older voters running for the hills.

Many have bets on  Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) and Steven Spielberg (War Horse) but, as I said in the Best Picture column, I’m still a wary of those two.

Best Guesses, For Now:
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Good Bets, But Shaky:
George Clooney, Ides of March
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Never Count Out, But Shaky:
Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
Terrance Malick, Tree of Life
Wood Allen, Midnight in Paris
David Fincher, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Tate Taylor, The Help

Wishful Thinking (read: Not Gonna Happen):
David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
Steve McQueen, Shame

Possible…I Guess:
Roman Polanski, Carnage
Pedro Almodovar, The Skin I Live In
Gavin O’Conner, Warrior