Current Predictions 09-28-11:
Albert Brooks, Drive
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Ides of March
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar

Best Supporting Actor Notes: For the past few Oscars a clear winner in the Supporting Actor category has emerged well in advance of the show and even the nominations. This year is shaping up to be somewhat of a honorary Oscar race, with all the major players -Brooks, Plummer, Branagh, and Hawkes – having successful, though not particularly lauded, careers.

Unless someone surfaces over the next few months, which is very possible considering how thin this field currently is, I think the race will remain between Brooks and Plummer with Brooks likely to come out as the winner. I hope Martha Marcy May Marlene gets love from the academy. I have a feeling that Olsen and Hawkes will benefit from voters continuing to want to honor small pictures. Hawkes’ nomination last year proves he’s at least liked by the academy. The final two spots are really up in the air. I just assume if Hoffman’s in the mix, he can’t be ruled out. I also have a funny feeling that Hammer has a lot of respect as the new pretty boy who can actually put on a good show. My thinking is that they may want to honor J. Edgar in some way in at least one of the major categories.

As for the contenders I think are out: Branagh and Mortenson have the makings of those hopefuls that fall away as stronger contenders begin to amass. I’d love to see either of these guys int he mix but I don’t think it’s happening. Thomas Horn in  Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is a really tricky one for me. This film in general feels very hit or miss though, like War Horse and J. Edgar, I’m going miss for now.

Ides of March and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy could dominate this category if support springs in both or either of their directions. They both have huge casts of reputable actor, any of which could sneak in. I’ll say only Hoffman will for now, knowing full well that will probably change.

Good Bets:
Albert Brooks, Drive
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Strong Chances:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Ides of March
John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Thomas Horn, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Viggo Mortenson, A Dangerous Method
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
George Clooney, Ides of March
Paul Giamatti, Ides of March
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult

Doubtful At This Point:
Neils Arestrup, War Horse
Benedict Comberbatch, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Christoph Waltz, Carnage
John C. Reilly, Carnage