Current Predictions (10-10-11):
J. Edgar
X-Men: First Class
The Iron Lady

Best Makeup Notes (10-10-11): Makeup should be a far more exciting award category than it really is. The Academy has a taste for awarding age or other transformational makeup over creative, laborious work that is both time-consuming and grandiose. This is the one category where I wish the Academy went with the most “obvious” choice because, frankly, outlandish makeup is an art form all in itself. Always one to do exactly what people don’t care as much about, the Academy tends toward subtlety here lately. This isn’t to say the work in The Hours was any less stellar than that in Wolfman, but one took more guts and creative planning while the other survived on strong research.

This year people are assuming the Academy will again go with the transformational makeup in J. Edgar, Iron Lady, or Albert Nobbs. I have to guess this will in fact be the way they go seeing as no other films really lend themselves to makeup in the purest sense. The advent of CGI also hurts films that would have otherwise been makeup heavy like Rise of the Planet of the Apes. X-Men is the closest thing to a pure makeup movie that this year has yet offered. I have to cross my fingers that this one gets nominated. If it does, I will likely pick it for the win as well.

Hugo might slip into this category (as always) but I have no idea whether there will be strong enough makeup to keep it above water. The Artist also has a really good shot for its elegant and subtle work. At some point The Artist will have to lose out on a nomination and here is it’s best shot at failure. Until further word, I’ll keep it off the short list.

Good Possibilities:
X-Men: First Class
Hugo
J. Edgar
The Iron Lady
The Artist
Anonymous
Green Lantern
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Albert Nobbs
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Captain America: The First Avenger
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Bad Bets:
War Horse
My Week with Marilyn
A Dangerous Method