Current Predictions (10-13-11):
“Star Spangled Man” (Captain America: The First Avenger; written by Alan Menken and David Zippel; performed by The Star Spangled Singers)
“Where the River Goes” (Footloose; performed by Zac Brown)
“Lay Your Head Down” (Albert Nobbs; written by Bryan Bryne and Glenn Close and performed by Sinead O’Connor)
“The Living Proof” (The Help; written and performed by Mary J. Blige)
“So Long” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Zooey Deschanel; performed by Zooey Deschanel and M. Ward/She and Him)

Best Original Song Notes: More often than not an original movie song can be on-the-nose, trite, and insufferable, especially if listened to outside the context of the film. But once in a while there will be a “Philadelphia” or a “Lose Yourself” that are so revelatory beyond even the scope of the movie they’re written for that it makes wading through the pile of mediocrity seem worth it. Don’t hold your breath for a great song to come along, you’ll know it when it appears. This year, it hasn’t appeared. As far as I can tell, these Oscar nominated songs will represent the performances of the award show where you get up to stretch the legs.

This past week the Albert Nobbs trailer gave us Sinead O’Connor’s almost beautiful original called “Lay Your Head Down.” Early reviews on the song seem positive though it didn’t immediately strike me as something special. That inherent soul in O’Connor’s vocals felt deadened slightly. Apparently O’Connor’s song plays over the end credits where it may have little effect on the tone of the picture. As a result, I wonder if it will be missed by voters.

Zac Brown’s song “Where the River Goes” sounds like a hit. In fact, of all the songs I’ve come across thus far this one has the most going for it. It may depend on how seriously voters take Footloose or how original they even know this song is. I have a feeling this one could get entirely missed come awards season.

The songs closest to locked thus far are Mary J. Blige’s emotional “The Living Proof” from The Help and Zooey Deschanel’s cutesy “So Long” from Winnie the Pooh. These each have voter’s heart-strings in mind. Deschanel might even win this thing if her new “cool” factor registers as a mark of freshness to the ever age wary Academy. I actually really like both of these songs. They aren’t groundbreaking but they are quite nice in varying ways.

Personally, I thought “Star Spangled Man” was hard to get through. It felt like a derivation of a derivation and self-parody at best. I think the song is entirely undeserving of anything but a chuckle. Perhaps this is the point and I missed it completely. I expect this one is easily replaceable as few people have responded positively to it. The thing about “Star Spangled Man” is that it’s an Alan Menken show tune, which will immediately draw votes based on reputation and preference. This is lazy Menken in my opinion.

I’ve attached links to each of the favorites below my lists.

Best Bets:
“Where the River Goes” (Footloose; performed by Zac Brown)
“Lay Your Head Down” (Albert Nobbs; written by Bryan Bryne and Glenn Close and performed by Sinead O’Conner)
“The Living Proof” (The Help; written and performed by Mary J. Blige)
“So Long” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Zooey Deschanel; performed by Zooey Deschanel and M. Ward/She and Him)
“Star Spangled Man” (Captain America: The First Avenger; written by Alan Menken and David Zippel; performed by The Star Spangled Singers)

Strong Possibilities:
“Walkin’ Blues” (Footloose; performed by Cee Lo Green and Kenny Wayne Shepherd)
“A Very Important Thing to Do” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; performed by Zooey Deschanel)”Rango Theme Song” (Rango; written by Hans Zimmer; performed by Los Lobos)
“The Keeper” (Machine Gun Preacher; written and performed by Chris Cornell)

Wishful Thinking:
“Sparkling Day” (One Day; written and performed by Elvis Costello)
“Enemy” (Wuthering Heights; written and performed by Mumford and Sons)

Bad Bets:
“Iridescent” (Transformers: Dark of the Moon; written and performed by Linkin Park)
“The Backson Song” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; performed by the Winnie the Poohcast)
“Pooh’s Finale” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; performed by Zooey Deschanel and the Winnie the Poohcast)
“The Tummy Song” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; performed by Jim Cummings)
“Everything is Honey” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; performed by Jim Cummings)
“It’s Gonna Be Great” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; performed by Jim Cummings and Bud Luckey)
“The Winner Song” (Winnie the Pooh; written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; performed by the Winnie the Poohcast)