Current Predictions (10-13-11):
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Best Actress Notes: Some noteworthy movement in the Actress race lately. For one thing, it looks like this thing will be absolutely packed with great performances. Many stand-outs will be left off the list and the question’s already becoming who will be the odd woman out.

Michelle Williams is getting raves for her performance in My Week With Marilyn, many viewers even calling her the legs by which the entire picture stands. It looks like Williams will be very difficult to pass up for a 3rd Oscar nomination. We know the Academy thinks fondly of her work so why wouldn’t they honor her for her first real vehicle? Especially if she knocks it out of the park. Don’t be shocked if Michelle Williams wins an Academy Award next February.

Just when the field was already packed to the brim, enter Olivia Colman for her performance in Tyrannosaur. Word is that she’s stellar and the film is just as good all around. If Tyrannosaur even makes the tiniest splash in the US, this is the kind of film that could get people very excited. Can’t say she’ll be a shoo-in just yet but she’s just another name on an already packed list.

Then there’s Charlize Theron in Young Adult. The trailer makes her look like she bears the entire weight of the story. She’s got the chops to do a bang up job and critics have a tendency to be over the moon for her performances. Up in the Air delivered nominations for two female performances so Reitman’s films cater to these types of things. I get the feeling she’s going to get in.

Beyond the add-ons of Williams and Colman, it looks like Keira Knightley will move to Supporting. Probably a smart move. It was looking less and less likely that she wasn’t getting in here. I have a feeling she’ll get nominated over there if A Dangerous Method has any serious impact.

The trailer for Albert Nobbs all but confirm that Glenn Close will be in the mix and you still count out

So who gets left behind?  Well, that would be Olsen, Swinton, and Mara. I feel that as of now Tilda Swinton and Rooney Mara will most likely be on the outside looking in. Of course Mara looks great in Dragon Tattoo but who knows if that will be anything more than an action film money-maker in the end. Swinton may have the legs to grab a spot it’s yet to be seen whether she has the impact to push her ahead of the others already building strongholds. Now, Olsen is tricky. She will get rave reviews for her performance and as we saw with Winter’s Bone, people love to vote for indies. She’s a very tough omission. But something’s gotta give.

Close To Locked:
Viola Davis, The Help
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Good Bets:
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method

Wishful Thinking:
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

Bad Bets:
Jodi Foster, Carnage
Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia