Recent screenings of Lincoln and Flight seem to have locked both leading actors for a  nominations – at least as locked as they can be at this point in the race. There’s rumblings that Anne Hathaway may be pushed as a lead for her performance in The Dark Knight Rises, which will likely ruin her chances of getting nominated for that film. The thinking behind the change is that Hathaway will generate a lot of support for Les Misérables, therefore canceling her out for TDKR (actors can only get nominated once per category). As for films in the Best Picture race, Argo still appears to be the frontrunner, with only four major threats still yet to be seen – Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Hitchcock, and Les Misérables. I have a feeling none of these will much a huge dent.

The poor box office performance for The Master may hurt its chances of getting enough traction. I’ve always felt people over-think box office in relation to critical acclaim, except that greater box office numbers usually means greater likelihood of exposure. If more people see it, more people will WANT to see it. It’s the Avatar/My Big Fat Greek Wedding thinking. But, really, how many people saw the last three Best Picture winners? Not many. That said, The Master is a confrontational film that’s about very big, controversial ideas. Ideas that fly in the face of many people in Hollywood, including some of its biggest stars. There’s no show of hands as to who’s a Scientologist in the Academy, but the intellectual deduction that the film isn’t actually about the religion, won’t translate to people who are believers. In this case, the bad box office will play to the favor of people already hoping the film will just go away. And slowly it is going away.

BOLD = my pick to win as of today

Best Picture:
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
***********
Promised Land
Amour
Hitchcock
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Anna Karenina
The Impossible
Flight
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director:
Ben Affleck, Argo
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Michael Haneke, Amour
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
***********
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Best Actor: 
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
***********
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
***********
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises
Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz

Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
***********
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
William H. Macy, The Sessions
Hal Hobrook, Promised Land

Best Supporting Actress:
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
***********
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Ann Dowd, Compliance

Adapted Screenplay:
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner/John Logan/Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Life of Pi, David Magee
The Sessions, Ben Lewin
***********
Les Misérables, William Nicholson
On the Road, Jose Rivera
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Ol Parker

Original Screenplay:
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola
Amour, Michael Haneke
Promised Land, Matt Damon/John Krasinski
***********
Flight, John Gatins
Seven Psychopaths, Martin McDonaugh
Take This Waltz, Sarah Polley
The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Cinematography: 
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Argo, Rodrigo Prieto
***********
The Master, Mihai Milaimare Jr.
The Dark Knight Rises, Wally Pfister
Les Misérables, Danny Cohen
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson

Costume Design:
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
The Master, Mark Bridges
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Django Unchained, Sharen Davis
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
***********
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
On the Road, Danny Glicker
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood

Best Production Design:
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Cloud Atlas
***********
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Master

Best Film Editing:
Argo, William Goldenberg
Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg + Dylan Tichenor
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy/Crispin Struthers
***********
Skyfall, Stuart Baird
The Master, Peter McNulty
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Crockett Doob/Alfonso Gonclaves

Best Original Score:
John Williams, Lincoln
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Silver Linings Playbook, Danny Elfman
On the Road, Gustavo Santaolella
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
***********
The Master, Jonny Greenwood
Cloud Atlas, Tom Twyker/Reinhold Heil
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin/Dan Romer

Best Original Song:
Strange Love, Karen O (Frankenweenie)
Midnight Run, Willie Nelson (Lawless)
Celebrate, Jennifer Hudson/Whitney Houston (Sparkle)
Skyfall, Adele (Skyfall)
Learn Me Right, Birdy/Mumford and Sons (Brave)
***********
Everybody Needs a Friend, Norah Jones (Ted)
Suddenly, Les Misérables (Hugh Jackman)
Fire in the Blood, The Bootleggers/Emmylou Harris (Lawless)

Best Documentary Feature:
West of Memphis
Jiro Dreams of Sushi
Detropia
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry
Invisible War
***********
Marley
Searching for Sugar Man
The Queen of Versailles
Central Park Five
Bully

Best Animated Feature:
Paranorman
Frankenweenie
Brave
Rise of the Guardians
The Lorax
***********
From Up on Poppy Hill
The Rabbi’s Cat
The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Best Foreign Film:
Amour (Austria)
The Intouchables (France)
Beyond the Hills (Romania)
No (Chile)
Barbara (Germany)
***********
Pieta (South Korea)
The Hypnotist (Sweden)
War Witch (Canada)
Our Children (Belgium)

Best Visual Effects:
Prometheus
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
***********
Flight
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Looper

Best Sound Editing:
The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Flight
Prometheus
***********
Cloud Atlas
Django Unchained
Les Misérables

Best Sound Mixing:
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
The Avengers
Prometheus
***********
Cloud Atlas
Skyfall
Django Unchained

Best Makeup:
Men in Black 3
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
***********
Looper
Dark Shadows
Snow White and the Huntsman