UPDATED: Oscars 2013 Predictions

The premiere of Hitchcock was met with ecstatic reviews from some important critics and lukewarm responses from others. Most complaints seem to find the film thin, humorous, light, and plagued by conspicuous makeup. The consensus is that Helen Mirren has emerged as a major threat in the Best Actress race and Anthony Hopkins is all but locked for Best Actor. In some respects, the reviews threaten to confirm my fear that Hitchcock might be a frothy and timid portrayal of the renowned figure. Like The Artist, being non-confrontational and being about the film industry will likely propel Hitchcock into the Best Picture race.

In other news, Jessica Chastain, like Anne Hathaway announced earlier this week, will be campaigned as a Lead Actress instead of Supporting for Zero Dark Thirty. This confirms my sense that Chastain might be a dark horse for an apparently dynamic role. However, this news complicates my prediction of the actress in the Supporting category. Supporting Actress is looking increasingly light while Lead Actress, like Lead Actor, is becoming more and more overstuffed with exciting performers. Perhaps Nicole Kidman has a better, if still only slight, chance of sneaking into Supporting for The Paperboy.

Until further notice, I will keep The Sessions in here for Best Picture. As I wrote earlier, I have a sneaking suspicion that this film will appeal to more people than some might expect. Also,Flight has opened to less-than-amazing reviews. While Denzel’s a knockout, the film likely has no chance in most other categories.

BOLD = my pick to win as of today

Best Picture:
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
The Sessions
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Anna Karenina
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director:
Ben Affleck, Argo
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables

Michael Haneke, Amour
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Matt Damon, Promised Land
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
William H. Macy, The Sessions

Best Supporting Actress:
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Ann Dowd, Compliance

Adapted Screenplay:
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner/John Logan/Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Life of Pi, David Magee
The Sessions, Ben Lewin
Les Misérables, William Nicholson
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin/Lucy Alibar
Hitchcock, John L. McLaughlin

Original Screenplay:
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola
Amour, Michael Haneke
The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson
Flight, John Gatins
Seven Psychopaths, Martin McDonaugh
Promised Land, Matt Damon/John Krasinski

Best Cinematography:
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Argo, Rodrigo Prieto
The Master, Mihai Milaimare Jr.
Les Misérables, Danny Cohen
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson

Costume Design:
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran

The Master, Mark Bridges
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
On the Road, Danny Glicker

Best Production Design:
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Cloud Atlas
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Master

Best Film Editing:
Argo, William Goldenberg
Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg + Dylan Tichenor
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy/Crispin Struthers

Skyfall, Stuart Baird
The Master, Peter McNulty

The Dark Knight Rises, Lee Smith

Best Original Score:
John Williams, Lincoln
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Cloud Atlas, Tom Twyker/Reinhold Heil
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
The Master, Jonny Greenwood
Silver Linings Playbook, Danny Elfman
On the Road, Gustavo Santaolella

Best Original Song:
Strange Love, Karen O (Frankenweenie)
Midnight Run, Willie Nelson (Lawless)
Celebrate, Jennifer Hudson/Whitney Houston (Sparkle)
Skyfall, Adele (Skyfall)
Learn Me Right, Birdy/Mumford and Sons (Brave)
Everybody Needs a Friend, Norah Jones (Ted)
Suddenly, Les Misérables (Hugh Jackman)
Fire in the Blood, The Bootleggers/Emmylou Harris (Lawless)

Best Documentary Feature:
West of Memphis
Jiro Dreams of Sushi
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry
Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
The Queen of Versailles
Central Park Five

Best Documentary Short:
Kings Point
The Education of Mohammad Hussein
Monday’s at Racine
Open Heart
The Perfect Fit

Best Animated Feature:
Rise of the Guardians
From Up on Poppy Hill
The Rabbi’s Cat
The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Best Foreign Film:
Amour (Austria)
The Intouchables (France)
Beyond the Hills (Romania)
No (Chile)
Barbara (Germany)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)
Our Children (Belgium)

Best Visual Effects:
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Sound Editing:
The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Cloud Atlas
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Sound Mixing:
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
Les Misérables
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Makeup:
Men in Black 3
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Dark Shadows
Snow White and the Huntsman

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