With the SAG nominations announced and the Golden Globes in place, the dust has settled on the majority of major precursor awards. While this season’s “Oscar movies” aren’t the best slate we’ve seen, they do offer a diverse group. Most interesting, however, might be the competition itself. Without clear winners in any of the major categories (except perhaps Daniel Day-Lewis) this year is shaping up to present one of the better telecasts in the last half-decade.

There was some flip-flopping early on, but now it looks like what we expected all along. Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, or Lincoln will lead a pack of Best Picture nominees that will include Les Miz, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook. My gut feeling that Django Unchained will get in is starting to look like a good one. I’m still also on board for Moonrise Kingdom getting enough support from multiple types of voters to sneak in. Beasts of the Southern Wild looks like this year’s Winter’s Bone. It’s in. As for the winner? General wisdom says Zero Dark Thirty, seeing as it’s pulling down everything right now. However, I’m sticking with Lincoln. Spielberg’s film still has the generated “zeitgeist” on its side, along with all the pedigree to keep it living in people’s minds for virtually every category. Now that I think of it, Lincoln has a chance to be one of the most – is not the most – nominated films ever.

The acting categories have taken on an interesting dynamic, with none looking all that clear-cut. The Best Actress race is still wide open and the three spots after Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence could go many ways. That said, I think that Marion Cotillard is locked in. Vying for the final two spots will be Naomi Watts, Helen Mirren, Quvenzhané Wallis, and Emmanuelle Riva. Consistent attention for Mirren and Watts mixed with their well-known stature in Hollywood has me thinking that Wallis and Riva will be prove too esoteric to get in.

As for Best Actor, I’ve had this horrible inkling that Joaquin Phoenix might not even get nominated. I’m not ready to go there yet, but his exclusion from the SAG awards is disconcerting. Likewise, Sam Rockwell is looking like he has no chance to get in for Supporting with voters possibly going for a slate of actors who’ve all won an Oscar in the past. In the Best Supporting Actor race, Nicole Kidman’s recent nominations at SAG and the Globes is a pleasant surprise. I had no idea that anyone would go for Kidman’s wild, over-the-top, and courageous antics in The Paperboy. It’s still one of my favorite performances of the year. Next to Phoenix, Kidman’s nomination would be the most welcome.

The tech awards are slowly coming into focus and that’s where some of the quality stuff will live. Anna Karenina seems to be getting enough attention to hang around in categories like Costume, Cinematography, and Production Design. The Globe nod for its Score is also exciting. Look for this one to pick up three or four nominations, quite a lot for a genuinely challenging picture. On the other hand, I’m thinking more and more that The Master will likely only grab acting noms (and maybe only one at that). While many are still thinking cinematography, I’m not so sure.

BOLD = my pick to win as of today

Best Picture:
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Misérables
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
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Amour
The Master
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
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Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Michael Haneke, Amour
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
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Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
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Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
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Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths

Best Supporting Actress:
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
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Ann Dowd, Compliance
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Adapted Screenplay:
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner/John Logan/Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Life of Pi, David Magee
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin/Lucy Alibar
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The Sessions, Ben Lewin
The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Stephen Chbosky

Original Screenplay:
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola
Amour, Michael Haneke
The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson
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Flight, John Gatins
Seven Psychopaths, Martin McDonaugh
Middle of Nowhere, Ava DuVernay

Best Cinematography:
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Les Misérables, Danny Cohen
Zero Dark Thirty, Greig Fraser
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The Master, Mihai Milaimare Jr.
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson

Costume Design:
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
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The Master, Mark Bridges
A Royal Affair, Manon Rasmussen
On the Road, Danny Glicker

Best Production Design:
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Cloud Atlas
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Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Master

Best Film Editing:
Argo, William Goldenberg
Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg + Dylan Tichenor
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy/Crispin Struthers
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Skyfall, Stuart Baird
The Master, Peter McNulty
Les Misérables, Chris Dickens

Best Original Score:
John Williams, Lincoln
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Cloud Atlas, Tom Twyker/Reinhold Heil
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
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The Master, Jonny Greenwood
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin/Dan Romer
Moonrise Kingdom, Alexandre Desplat

Best Original Song:
For You, Act of Valor (Keith Urban)
Suddenly, Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
Still Alive, Paul Williams (Paul Williams Still Alive)
Skyfall, Adele (Skyfall)
Learn Me Right, Birdy/Mumford and Sons (Brave)
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Everybody Needs a Friend, Norah Jones (Ted)
Strange Love, Karen O (Frankenweenie)
From Here to the Moon and Back, Joyful Noise (Dolly Parton)

Best Documentary Feature:
Searching for Sugar Man
How To Survive A Plague
The House I Live In
Detropia
Invisible War
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Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry
Bully
Ethel
Chasing Ice
5 Broken Cameras
This is Not a Film
The Gatekeepers
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
The Imposter
The Waiting Room

Best Documentary Short:
Kings Point
The Education of Mohammad Hussein
Inocente
Monday’s at Racine
Open Heart
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ParaÍso
The Perfect Fit
Redemption

Best Animated Feature:
ParaNorman
Wreck-it Ralph
Frankenweenie
Brave
A Liar’s Autobiography
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The Rabbi’s Cat
Rise of the Guardians
Transylvania

Best Foreign Film:
Amour (Austria)
The Intouchables (France)
Our Children (Belgium)
No (Chile)
Barbara (Germany)
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A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)
Lore (Australia)
Beyond the Hills (Romania)

Best Visual Effects:
Prometheus
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
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The Amazing Spider-Man
John Carter
The Dark Knight Rises
Skyfall
Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Sound Editing:
The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Misérables
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
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Cloud Atlas
Skyfall
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Sound Mixing:
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
The Avengers
Django Unchained
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Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Makeup:
Cloud Atlas
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
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Looper
Dark Shadows
Snow White and the Huntsman

Live Action Short Subject:
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
when you find me
A Fábrica (The Factory)
9meter
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Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Henry
Kiruna-Kigali
The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars
Salar