YARDS OF GRAPEVINE | Movies, TV, Oscars & S'more

For me, the months leading up to the Oscar nomination announcement are generally the most fun. At that time you can scramble to see what’s taken seriously, what’s coming out, what little film has mainstream potential and, inevitably, what classic pieces of cinema will be totally ignored by the Oscars and, thus, by American moviegoers in general. By the day before, there are complete locks in virtually every category (this year it’s The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants), making the only excitement that’s left be a little glimmer of hope that small films could surprisingly get recognized.

The categories to look out for this year are Best Actress, Best Film Editing (and its telling closeness to Best Picture) and Best Original Screenplay. All signs point to Glenn Close being nominated but a strong piece of me believes she will fall into that “not actually that surprising” snub category. Rooney Mara is hot right now, the film is fresh on people’s minds and her role could represent a growing subgenre of “bad ass” females that became suddenly popular in 2011 (this is a good thing, by the way). Keira Knightley and Elizabeth Olsen have been unfairly left out in the cold for their similarly interesting turns. Mara looks like the swallowable (read: mainstream) performance to lead all.  Tilda Swinton gives a remarkably textured performance in We Need to Talk About Kevin, the kind that often flies under the radar. Luckily, Swinton already has the name recognition and Oscar credibility to be taken as a mainstream type. She’s showed up on every precursor thus far so I can’t see her being left off. Close’s performance in Albert Nobbs is a testament to the power of commitment and effort, however, her layers, not to mention the poor film around her, doesn’t do these efforts much justice. The small sample size of voters I’ve talked to have hardly even seen the film. They may vote sight unseen but my gut tells me she will be on the outside looking in.

Film Editing always seems to mirror Best Picture very closely. I’m on the fence about the final film to get into the best picture race – between Moneyball, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and War Horse. My sense is that the way the wind blows Best Editing, it will also blow Best Picture. For that reason, I believe both The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will sneak into the Best Picture and Best Editing race. From an editing perspective, Dragon Tattoo is the most obvious, with the most prevalant past Oscar love (two noms for Baxtor and Wall + a win last year). Don’t be surprised to see War Horse or Moneyball in the Best Picture AND Editing categories.

The Original Screenplay category has one sure thing for nomination, likely, for the win: Midnight in Paris. As much because of honorary reasons as legitimate merit. Beyond that, The Artist is, of course, locked in. However, the rest of the category could be the spot where some fantastic, hardly recognized movies, get nods. My hope is to see Take Shelter, A Separation, and Bridesmaids find a place. I’d be happy for Martha Marcy May Marlene, 50/50, or Win Win to show up, not because these are as deserving but because of their small film integrity. Once the dust settles and the reality sets in that Hollywood will always honor the most comfortable and comforting films, never really recognizing the arduous glory that is small, thoughtful pictures, one must turn to categories like this to find joy.

Anyway, here goes my best shot at this year’s crop:

Best Picture:
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

If there Are Ten Nominees (in this order):
Moneyball
War horse
The Tree of life
Drive

The rest after the jump.

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