Current Predictions 09-27-11:
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50

Best Actor Notes: Looks like this year is shaping up to be the “year of male stars.” Also shaping up to be a pretty predictable category with George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Gary Oldman, Matt Damon and Leo all in roles that could land them an Oscar. Outside of Tom Hardy in Warrior, I’m yet to see a performance that seems astounding. I had a feeling Hardy would get nominated but the film’s box office disappearance makes any support for the film a very distant possibility. I have a gut feeling Moneyball will get a good amount of Oscar love as  it seems to be hitting all the right notes (audience support, critical support, and box office support). This probably means Pitt is a shoe-in. I get the impression Clooney and Oldman are virtual locks as well.

The Artist recently took home a major award at San Sebastian, making me rethink my sense this film wasn’t really a major contender. I do think if anything gets appreciation it will be Jean Dujardin’s performance. Shakier to me, is Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar. The trailer made it look like Aviator-lite and I can’t say I’m convinced that he has the chops to continue getting support for this new (shall we call it boyish regal?) type of role he continues to play. I also strongly question how much Eastwood will continue to get love from the Academy.

An indie performance might sneak in for the 5th spot. I have a strange feeling this will be Gordon-Levitt for 50/50 though Giamatti got some love for Win Win.

Very Good Bets:
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Could Easily Grab A Spot:
Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Drive or Ides of March
Paul Giamatti, Win Win

Still In Play:
Tom Hardy, Warrior
Michael Fassbender, Shame

Outside Possibility, But Very Much A Possibility:
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
Woody Harrelson, Rampart
Johnny Depp, Rum Diary

Doubtful:
Matt Damon, We Bought A Zoo
Christoph Waltz, Carnage