Current Predictions 09-27-11:
Viola Davis, The Help
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Best Actress Notes: Unlike the Best Actor category, this one seems like a tough one to predict. Davis and Close are the only things close to locks at this early point and even those seem a little flimsy. Davis’ universal praise and the film’s success makes me more confident in her than I am in Close. I get the impression Close will get something of an honorary nod in an otherwise weak film. The sentiment in the film community has become that Close is the best living actress without an Oscar. This type of hyperbole can work to get someone a nomination but does it ever actually work for the win? Maybe it used to but now I’m not so sure. In general, I’m still very iffy on Close.

I have a feeling Rooney Mara will be close but no cigar for a performance that will probably be seen by some as inferior to the original. Keira Knightley has the chops to get in for A Dangerous Method, a challenging film that the voters will probably feel inclined to honor in a small way. You can never count out Streep, naturally. Olsen looks like a critical darling and Swinton obviously already has tons of Academy support. Swinton and Olsen also have the kinds of harrowing roles that voters can sink their teeth into.

Close To Locked:
Viola Davis, The Help

Good Bets:
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

I Have My Doubts:
Jodi Foster, Carnage
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia

In A Perfect World:
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids