YARDS OF GRAPEVINE | Movies, TV, Oscars & S'more

With the SAG nominations announced and the Golden Globes in place, the dust has settled on the majority of major precursor awards. While this season’s “Oscar movies” aren’t the best slate we’ve seen, they do offer a diverse group. Most interesting, however, might be the competition itself. Without clear winners in any of the major categories (except perhaps Daniel Day-Lewis) this year is shaping up to present one of the better telecasts in the last half-decade.

There was some flip-flopping early on, but now it looks like what we expected all along. Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, or Lincoln will lead a pack of Best Picture nominees that will include Les Miz, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook. My gut feeling that Django Unchained will get in is starting to look like a good one. I’m still also on board for Moonrise Kingdom getting enough support from multiple types of voters to sneak in. Beasts of the Southern Wild looks like this year’s Winter’s Bone. It’s in. As for the winner? General wisdom says Zero Dark Thirty, seeing as it’s pulling down everything right now. However, I’m sticking with Lincoln. Spielberg’s film still has the generated “zeitgeist” on its side, along with all the pedigree to keep it living in people’s minds for virtually every category. Now that I think of it, Lincoln has a chance to be one of the most – is not the most – nominated films ever.

The acting categories have taken on an interesting dynamic, with none looking all that clear-cut. The Best Actress race is still wide open and the three spots after Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence could go many ways. That said, I think that Marion Cotillard is locked in. Vying for the final two spots will be Naomi Watts, Helen Mirren, Quvenzhané Wallis, and Emmanuelle Riva. Consistent attention for Mirren and Watts mixed with their well-known stature in Hollywood has me thinking that Wallis and Riva will be prove too esoteric to get in.

As for Best Actor, I’ve had this horrible inkling that Joaquin Phoenix might not even get nominated. I’m not ready to go there yet, but his exclusion from the SAG awards is disconcerting. Likewise, Sam Rockwell is looking like he has no chance to get in for Supporting with voters possibly going for a slate of actors who’ve all won an Oscar in the past. In the Best Supporting Actor race, Nicole Kidman’s recent nominations at SAG and the Globes is a pleasant surprise. I had no idea that anyone would go for Kidman’s wild, over-the-top, and courageous antics in The Paperboy. It’s still one of my favorite performances of the year. Next to Phoenix, Kidman’s nomination would be the most welcome.

The tech awards are slowly coming into focus and that’s where some of the quality stuff will live. Anna Karenina seems to be getting enough attention to hang around in categories like Costume, Cinematography, and Production Design. The Globe nod for its Score is also exciting. Look for this one to pick up three or four nominations, quite a lot for a genuinely challenging picture. On the other hand, I’m thinking more and more that The Master will likely only grab acting noms (and maybe only one at that). While many are still thinking cinematography, I’m not so sure.

BOLD = my pick to win as of today

Best Picture:
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Misérables
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
***********
Amour
The Master
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

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