Recent screenings of Les Misérables and Zero Dark Thirty have garnered positive buzz with each seeming to be declared locks for Best Picture nominations. The handful of people I know who have seen Les Miz are less than enthused about what they found to be insufferably long and turgid. My guess is that the musical will get a nomination based on the enthusiasm it will receive from those who tend towards musical theater (a pretty big contingent). Likewise, Zero Dark Thirty looks to have the chops as a late addition with an immersive account of a true story. My gut tells me neither film will win.

As the year goes on, it looks more and more like voters would have to be crazy not to vote for Daniel Day-Lewis. When I think about Lincoln, I hardly remember the actor whose hidden behind top notch makeup and layers of research. He’s probably a lock for the win; something that seemed impossible a few months ago, given his recent success. Anne Hathaway, a possible double nominee, has been declared the winner in a weak Best Supporting Actress category by virtually everyone who has seen Les Miz, whether they liked the film or not. The acting races tend to level out around this time, so for now it looks like we have two of the four favorites.

Without putting too much stock in last night’s Gotham Awards, I did think the news of Moonrise Kingdom winning Best Feature and Emayatzy Corinealdi winning Breakthrough performer was telling. I’ve felt for a while that Kingdom has a beat Best Picture. A small, charming film by a well-loved director who has gotten little recognition in the past. It’s also a comedy with smarts (though a different kind of smarts from Silver Linings Playbook). If nothing else, this win means people are willing to vote for it. While I love the win for Middle of Nowhere, I think the story here is the lack of support for Quvenzhané Wallis. The young actress has been falling off contender lists. I think she might be out of the race. Which is sad, but awards tend to be about popularity not honoring intriguing performances. I hope she goes onto a great career.

BOLD = my pick to win as of today

Best Picture:
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
***********
Amour
The Master
The Sessions
Hitchcock

Best Director:
Ben Affleck, Argo
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
***********
Michael Haneke, Amour
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
***********
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises
***********
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Eddie Redmayne Les Misérables
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
***********
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Best Supporting Actress:
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
***********
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Ann Dowd, Compliance

Adapted Screenplay:
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner/John Logan/Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Life of Pi, David Magee
Les Misérables, William Nicholson
***********
The Sessions, Ben Lewin
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin/Lucy Alibar
Hitchcock, John L. McLaughlin

Original Screenplay:
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola
Amour, Michael Haneke
The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson
***********
Flight, John Gatins
Seven Psychopaths, Martin McDonaugh
Promised Land, Matt Damon/John Krasinski

Best Cinematography:
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Les Misérables, Danny Cohen
Argo, Rodrigo Prieto
***********
The Master, Mihai Milaimare Jr.
Zero Dark Thirty, Greig Fraser
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson

Costume Design:
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
***********
The Master, Mark Bridges
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
On the Road, Danny Glicker

Best Production Design:
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Cloud Atlas
***********
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Master

Best Film Editing:
Argo, William Goldenberg
Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg + Dylan Tichenor
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy/Crispin Struthers
***********
Skyfall, Stuart Baird
The Master, Peter McNulty
Les Misérables, Chris Dickens

Best Original Score:
John Williams, Lincoln
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Cloud Atlas, Tom Twyker/Reinhold Heil
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
***********
The Master, Jonny Greenwood
Silver Linings Playbook, Danny Elfman
On the Road, Gustavo Santaolella

Best Original Song:
Suddenly, Les Misérables (Hugh Jackman)
Midnight Run, Willie Nelson (Lawless)
From Here to the Moon and Back, Dolly Parton (Joyful Noise)
Skyfall, Adele (Skyfall)
Learn Me Right, Birdy/Mumford and Sons (Brave)
***********
Everybody Needs a Friend, Norah Jones (Ted)
Strange Love, Karen O (Frankenweenie)
Still Alive, Paul Williams (Paul Williams Still Alive)

Best Documentary Feature:
The House I Live In
How to Survive a Plague
The Central Park Five
West of Memphis
The Invisible War
***********
Searching for Sugar Man
The Queen of Versailles
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry

Best Documentary Short:
Kings Point
The Education of Mohammad Hussein
Inocente
Monday’s at Racine
Open Heart
***********
ParaÍso
The Perfect Fit
Redemption

Best Animated Feature:
ParaNorman
Wreck-it Ralph
Frankenweenie
Brave
A Liar’s Autobiography
***********
The Rabbi’s Cat
Rise of the Guardians
The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Best Foreign Film:
Amour (Austria)
The Intouchables (France)
Our Children (Belgium)
No (Chile)
Barbara (Germany)
***********
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)
Lore (Australia)
Beyond the Hills (Romania)

Best Visual Effects:
Prometheus
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
The Impossible
***********
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Looper

Best Sound Editing:
The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Misérables
The Dark Knight Rises
Prometheus
***********
Cloud Atlas
Skyfall
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Sound Mixing:
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
The Avengers
Prometheus
***********
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Makeup:
Cloud Atlas
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
***********
Looper
Dark Shadows
Snow White and the Huntsman